A letter back to friends.
Hello:
chance today, read your blog, I feel very well written, very objective. But after reading a question like to ask about.
From the rental rate , the vacancy rate, revenue view, everyone knows that housing bubble is huge. But the central government to protect eight local
sell to the government, government policy is totally on the strong side of high prices. If you have been days like this the amount of credit,
laissez-faire speculative bubble will always be maintained without destroying it? In other words, the policy forces the limit? spare no effort to assume that the future policy of the pricey price
whether the bubble is still the inevitability of a breakdown. Thank you!
Hello friends, who did not anonymous:
a lot of people like you, the sustainability of monetary policy into question, the central government also suspected of eight cases to protect the money policy is never to tighten, but do not believe that future policy will be to curb speculation, but also doubts whether the bubble will continue unbroken, while also not clear easing the limit is the maximum extent. In fact, these issues are simple We take a look at some recent real estate policy with China on economic and livelihood index and other related links you can get the answer, have said in the previous rental rate, vacancy rate and price earnings ratio problem, then to talk about other aspects in the following. < br> First, since the real estate from 2003 gradually began to assume the role of breadwinner, and therefore in 03 years after China's economic growth rate far exceeding in 03 years ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics data show that from 91 to 03 years in China average economic growth rate of less than 7%, and 03 years after the beginning of GDP a few years from 05-08 years, mean And always in the past few years the export tax rebate on exports to maintain, so you can see that the actual growth of China's economy after 03 years has been basically following in the reliance on real estate, which is 2008 a sudden economic downturn in the real estate crisis, the Chinese economy After the second quarter, down from the main line, is 08 6 times throughout the year and introduced a package of cuts to stimulate the real estate rescue plan source, so you can see, the Chinese economy is the real estate economy, not real estate driven, China Economic growth has been completely lost momentum, and the current goal of the Government's annual GDP and even security are eight in the top eight security, then the only thing you can rely on is still only in real estate, that is to come the general direction of policy on real estate regulation, no people because most people can not afford housing and real housing prices to stabilize or control has become inevitable.
from another perspective, because of the current urgent need for real estate to boost the economy, then in today's international trade is constantly suppressed, export of the increasingly serious situation, China's employment problem is clearly more severe than the issue price, according to my rough estimates, there are National Bureau of Statistics data on employment and the real difference between the many employment data from the 2008 Spring Festival has 20 million unemployed migrant workers to return home ahead of schedule during the Spring Festival 90 million migrant workers return home, and then after the Spring Festival, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other places crowded tide of unemployment, many migrant workers work in jobs not been the case once again forced to return home, the group roughly more than ten million full statistics, around the Spring Festival which accompanied the 1.1 million migrant workers return home for nearly one-fifth of the loss of jobs and not back to town, years later, the unemployment rate of migrant workers has more than 30 million, and the whole new labor force population of nearly 2000 million people rely on only 8% GDP growth in 1000 driven million jobs, the unemployment rate has been together more than 40 million, while more than ten years earlier, according to an annual increase of 20 million labor force per year 10% of the GDP can only pull 1000 million people in employment, Bureau of Statistics data show that each year more than 400 million labor force not employed, from 02-08 years of cumulative employment of today's population has not been much more than 3000 people, 09 year plus 08 new labor and migrant workers lost their jobs total, plus 30% per year the last decade fresh total number of students not employed, unemployed, at least in the current more than 80 million, that China's current 5% of the total unemployment rate far exceeds the employment problem is very serious. Therefore, the state is stable and stimulating employment, savings will spare no effort to increase investment, all are aware the current labor-intensive export processing industry is the best way to solve the employment, but suppressed by the trade effects of export subsidies can only continue to increase boost exports, while exports of export subsidies now to solve the employment problems, has been unable to drive the economy, end the export subsidies are still needed for the financial industry profits from the other obtained, thus had to rely on real estate savings again, and thus the vicious circle can not change the final rule, as long as the policy of reliance on real estate, real estate will spare no effort to tilt, and the current real estate practitioners will therefore continue to push up the room price, so the possibility is very slim down prices.
from the employment point of view there is a problem in the future one of the key factors affecting the real estate is not driven farmers export subsidies and income growth, house prices in monetary policy, thus stimulation of the trend of skyrocketing compared to income ratio is only growing, it had also said.
about the amount of days of credit for the supporting role of real estate, which is all very aware, in the 09 In the first half statistics can see that the economic growth of more than 7% coincided with the real estate data, that is, the real estate credit driven economic growth in the first half brought, it did not end until 11 the end of the year we can launch the world's total of more than 70 times China's suppression of trade protection, see the future of China's exports more difficult, relying on exports for economic days are gone, and the whole infrastructure investment in the iron-based investment company did not pull the employment and the economy, other investment only digest the same part of the excessive production of reinforced concrete, which is not permanently sustainable, but also back to real estate on the final question, the authorities have already read clear the current lack of real estate is not the role of the economy, the opening of the small towns of the household registration system, which is equal to the second and third tier cities the demand for real estate entered a new, but also for the first-tier cities in the inflow of population segregation, but in essence Look, this is wishful thinking to do the government, just as people want the government to drop prices to buy a house, like a huge gap in the city related to the case of welfare, the problem first-line short-term surge in the city's roving bandits can not be changed within a few years, it is precisely because the real estate business cover plate can be arbitrary and even reluctant sellers shill bidding, it is supply and demand problem, if you do not change all that fluctuations in the economy does not appear before the prices will never fall, so everyone is looking forward to economic fluctuations, that is, when the current monetary policy tightened.
monetary policy from the last decade of view, the proportion of annual money supply increase in the number, the number of housing prices to rise, line the city's housing prices has been the ratio of 2 times the money supply, so in 2009 Beijing, Shanghai deep house prices in several cities were in the 50-60% or more, while at the same price index is parallel with the money supply, from 05-09 years to see, except for statistical data is not that from vegetables, rice oil, food prices Look, the real annual average rose more than 10%, which is also the proportion of money supply in recent years, considerable, especially in 2008 rose nearly 20% true, then in 2009 the real prices of vegetables have been far more than the 30% increase Of course, countries do not recognize the data, but each person bought food is very clear that these changes seriously affect the price index to the current per capita income and purchasing power, it is thus rising prices had surpassed 15% in recent years, per capita income is only about 9% growth in the premise, and now people can actually become smaller and smaller dominance, dominance of commodities can be even smaller, so the current will appear is a suite of three generations of the social status of house slaves This is the monetary policy and housing prices, the relationship between house slaves.
to now look at three generations of house slaves of a suite of market situation has started, then monetary policy in recent years and per capita income and house prices and rising prices effects can be dominating view, whenever the money supply increased by 10%, the price will increase by 10%, while per capita income even if the money supply increased by 30% the following is only up 10, so the market in 2010 to increase if we continue to put 30 % of the money, then the first-tier cities housing prices rose at least 30%, prices will rise at least 10%, with per capita income offset, the real per capita no growth dominance, with prices down 40% or more than equal to , then calculate price earnings ratio has no rental ratio and proportion, and remove the credit support for real estate, the only way to support the real estate is to buy a suite of three generations of buyers view the current society, the lack of medical care, pension, education, employment, and so security must support the elderly in many after 80, for a suite of three generations of family, after all, only a minority, so the real market demand and prices have been out, this is line 09 cities in the 50% vacancy rate the root of the problem has surfaced now, the vacancy rate of 50% of the hands of speculators, the house has no way to flow back into the market, so the only direction for future housing policy is to avoid collapse, that is, to preferential policies to stimulate the three generations or four generations buy a house together, and ultimately as a way to resolve the housing crisis, of course, is only wishful thinking that things can never be completed.
last issue focused on the limits of the policy to the current capital of banks in emerging shortage of phenomenon, and the bank has not released the proportion of non-performing assets have continued to cast it to the trust situation, the current financial risks has been very severe, if the Bank published data (I have about the data, because the problem is too large should not be published), I am afraid that all depositors the money should be safe to sleep on the bed. from looking beyond the current limits of monetary policy, why should we continue to implement, depending on the affordability of the current people's livelihood has not reached its limit, so the government have the courage to continue printing money to market, with the present per capita income and life than to see the happiness index, has been hanging upside down relationship, the higher the income is growing, the more happiness index decreased, so 2009 is the feeling of most people earn But not enough to spend more, which is mentioned in front of a fast money supply too much causes the phenomenon of rising prices, although the current government does not recognize, in fact, all feel it. in accordance with the laws of perspective, the future monetary policy continues delivery, in essence only an additional burden on the people's livelihood, and to present a suite of three generations to the income of the two families even to afford to see, real estate has reached the brink of collapse, and if such a policy in the two-year, three generations of people can not afford housing in the day will come, and prices rose too fast, once the market a serious shortage of real purchasing power to support only speculative demand (which is the real estate situation in 2009), but once discovered quilt speculative demand, prices will enter stagflation phase, once formed the situation of stagflation prices by speculators and people fled the lack of purchasing power, real estate does not want to collapse is impossible. So to measure several aspects of the above view, liberal policy has been a spent force continue to implement a year, inflation will come after the stagnation, the overall situation of the real estate collapse and completely die hard.
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